Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King all came out today! I have anticipated both of these to be fairly large movies at the box office, due to Sonic’s huge marketing pushes, and Sonic and Mufasa’s cultural popularity.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3, seeing the return of stars Jim Carrey (Dr. Robotnik) and Ben Shwartz (Sonic), and the introduction of Keanu Reeves (Shadow) has been highly anticipated since the Shadow the Hedgehog teaser at the end of Sonic 2. This anticipation, as well as the introduction of action star Keanu Reeves (John Wick, The Matrix) made me believe that this was going to be popular pick for families across the country. The mix of Ben Shwartz lovable Sonic, and Keanu Reeves’ edgy Shadow, I predicted that this movie would be popular among both adults and kids. Sonic has also had a good marketing campaign which will also help its performance. The problem with this movie is that it is the third movie in a franchise that doesn’t seem to want to be done anytime soon., Audiences may be getting bored of it, however, I doubt that will stop the kids.
Mufasa, directed by Barry Jenkins, and starring Aaron Pierre (Mufasa), Donald Glover (Simba), and Kelvin Harrison (Taka), probably won’t do as well as Sonic. Though many older audiences love the animated Lion King, recent adaptions have been less favorable, and this one will likely be the same way. This movie’s marketing campaign has also been severely lacking, due to the fact that it only has one official trailer, other than the teaser, and because the marketing and release of Moana 2 over Thanksgiving has drowned out Mufasa. Though adult audiences may prefer to watch Mufasa, I think kids will be more drawn to Sonic 3, so in most cases I think Sonic 3 wins the whole family, and takes the box office.
Lets see how I did (to be clear, I’m only calculating US revenue and review, not worldwide):
It seems to be great for Sonic, and bad for Mufasa. As of December 20th, Sonic has an 88% critic score and 98% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. Critics say even though the story sometimes feels incohesive, it is a very fun movie, with good action and high stakes. Mufasa, on the other hand, has a 57% from critics and an 88% from the audience. Critics say that even though the direction and music for the movie did a good job representing the Circle of Life, the story is ill served by its impersonal, photorealistic animation. It is a needless furthering of The Lion King lore, which was just supposed to be a one-off when it came out in 1994, but we all know Disney will take any chance they can to make a few extra bucks.
Let’s look at the box office. On opening weekend Sonic 3 made $70.5 million nationwide, and Mufasa only made $35 million, a little over half that of Sonic. So it turns out I was right. Due to the variables I listed in this article, Sonic 3 has won families’ cash all over the nation this weekend. The numbers may change over time, especially when these movies hit Disney+ and Paramount+, but opening weekend is what usually takes the cake.
If you are curious, here are the numbers worldwide: Sonic 3 is projected to make $500 million, and Mufasa is projected to make $1 billion. This is typical of movies like these, as families in different countries may have different opinions or standards than Americans. Usually, the world box office results inverse domestic results. Some countries may ban movies, so for example, Mufasa could have a green light to 20 more countries than Sonic, so it would naturally make more money.
That’s all for this box office analysis. So be notified the next time I release an article, subscribe!